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The Big Bear Skinny

The Big Bear market info minus the fat

Big Bear Home Buyers – Get Educated!

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By Tyler Wood on July 12th, 2010
Categories: Big Bear Buyers, Big Bear Real Estate News, Real Estate Video
Tags: , , ,     

Many people assume real estate agents are always looking for the quick sale, especially when it comes to buyers. To somehow trick the buyers into buying something they don’t really want to buy in the quickest amount of time is the standard real estate stereotype I hear all the time.

It may be the case in some instances, but to me an informed and educated buyer is the best kind of buyer I can work with. Those who take their time and do their due diligence prior to looking and buying . The times I see problems come up in a transaction are when buyers move too fast on a property and don’t have all of the details before making the offer. This can get further complicated when the buyer is being represented by an agent with little to no knowledge of selling property in Big Bear.

Take a look at the video below and let me know what you think.

Click her for direct link to video

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Patience Is the Key to Home Buying Success

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By Izzy Barden on June 29th, 2010
Categories: Big Bear Buyers, Big Bear Real Estate News
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Cappuccino in ugly glass cup :P
Creative Commons License photo credit: insidious_plots

For many people, buying a house is going to be one of the most exciting things they will do in their lives. Even old hats still get a thrill out of purchasing a new property. The whole journey of finding, negotiating, and closing an escrow on a new place is an experience that is full of emotion. I am sure many folks don’t get much sleep the night before they are going home shopping. Like a kid getting a new bike for Christmas, some people can’t wait to get started.

Sometimes, they are too eager for their own good. Let me explain.

Odds are, you are not going to find the right home the first time you go out looking. There is so much more involved in buying a home than just picking one out and buying it. A home is a major investment and you owe it to yourself to do your homework. The last thing you want to do is tie up a large chunk of your capital in a rotten asset. What if you buy a home, only to discover you like the neighborhood next door much better? What if the home puts your kids in the wrong school district? What if you buy in an area with low resale value and you could have bought in an area on the upswing? Chances are, if you had not rushed into things, and taken your time, you would not have made these mistakes. Of all my escrows that have fallen the out, the majority have been because my client bought on the spur of the moment, and later had buyer’s remorse.

When buying in Big Bear, location is very important. I can’t tell you how many times I have shown property to buyers who told me that they absolutely only wanted to be in a certain neighborhood, only to have them buy somewhere else once they saw what was available. Unless you are a local, there is a very slim likely hood that you actually know every neighborhood and its characteristics. Do yourself a favor and at least drive through the whole valley before you make your decision. If you buy before seeing everywhere, you could be missing out on something special.

If you don’t see a home you absolutely love, wait. We have new homes coming on the market every day. The odds of a home you will love becoming available in a short amount of time are very good, especially if you have a good Realtor in your corner watching the market for you. It is far better to wait until the right home comes along than jump the gun and buy something you only kind of like. I would recommend finding a Realtor you know is a full time professional and letting them do the leg work for you. Someone who is on the ball and knows what you like is in a great position to make sure you know about the house and can move quickly to buy it.

If you have any questions about Big Bear real estate, please contact me at izzy@thetimwoodgroup.com

Izzy Barden

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Big Bear Foreclosure Numbers – May 2010

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By Tyler Wood on June 26th, 2010
Categories: Big Bear Foreclosures, Big Bear Market Conditions, Big Bear Real Estate News
Tags: , , , , , ,     

Foreclosure filings in Big Bear dropped significantly in May 2010, down 32% when compared to April. And year over year, foreclosure filings were down 46% from the May 2009 numbers, the fifth straight month that foreclosure filings were down year over year.  This is a welcome sign for an otherwise slow moving Big Bear real estate market.

Keep in mind, foreclosure filings are made up of three parts – Notices of Default (NOD), a recorded document that starts the foreclosure process, which is normally filed after homeowners fall behind in their payments. Notices of Sale (NOS), a recorded document that is filed about 3 months after the NOD, which sets the date for the Trustee Sale. Trustee Sales, typically held around 25 days after the NOS is filed, made up of properties that go back to the bank or sold to third parties, generally on the court house steps.

In May, all three – Notices of Default, Notices of Sale, & Trustee Sales back to the bank – dropped considerably.

Here’s how the foreclosure numbers broke down for May 2010.

Notices of Default (NOD) - 44 total, down 32% from April and down 53% from May 2009.

This is a big drop compared to what we were seeing a year ago.  If it continues, great, as it would mark the beginning of the end of foreclosures hitting the market.  But, it is too early to tell that right now.  We need to see consistent, sub-20 NODs per month in order to turn the corner in my opinion.

Why are defaults slowing? Good question.  Could be one of several things.  1.  Homeowners are not falling behind anymore – may be true but unlikely.  2.  Banks are slower to file the Notices – more likely.  We’ll see in the coming months.

Notices of Sale (NOS) – 41 total, down 28% from April and down 46% from May 2009.

Similar to NODs, these numbers are down dramatically year over year.  Even still, the number of homes in Big Bear currently in the NOS foreclosure pipeline is just 1 less than last month.  So, while we have seen a drop in the Notices filed, the total number on the verge of going to sale is nearly the same (see below).

Trustee Sales back to bank – 31 total, down 37% from April and down 24% from May 2009.

This is the lowest we’ve seen since November 2009, another good sign.  Less properties going to back to the bank means less coming on the market, and less downward pressure on pricing.

What are reasons properties never go back to the bank? I know of several – 1. the homeowner cures the defaulted amount; 2. the homeowner modifies their loan; 3. the homeowner completes a short sale;  4. a third party buys the property at the trustee sale on the court house steps (these eventually come on the market as investor owned); or  5. the lender incorrectly filed the foreclosure paperwork and has to start over.

Want to see what actually happens at Trustee Sales? Check out the video below.

Foreclosure Inventories In Big Bear (aka the Foreclosure Pipeline)

Feb. 2010 Mar. 2010 April 2010 May 2010
Preforeclosure (Notice of Default) 166 187 189 169
Auction (Notice of Sale) 192 186 168 167
Bank Owned 175 179 167 148

Though lower than last month, there still remains a large amount of Big Bear properties in the foreclosure pipeline – 169 properties have an NOD filed against it, 167 a Notice of Sale, and 148 are currently owned by the Bank.  Of those 148 that are bank owned, some are already on the market for sale, some are not, and a small amount have already re-sold to new owners. All in all, month over month, the foreclosure inventory in Big Bear is down 8% from last month.

Why are these numbers important? In my opinion, they are the most important stat to keep track of as they offer a glimpse into the future of any market. Everyone knows that foreclosures bring prices down in neighborhoods. So, the more foreclosures in an area, the more the downward push on pricing. And, if we want the market/prices to get better, we need to get all of these properties through the foreclosure pipeline first.

Til next month…..

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Big Bear Home Sales – May 2010

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By Tyler Wood on June 9th, 2010
Categories: Big Bear Foreclosures, Big Bear Market Conditions, Big Bear Real Estate News
Tags: , ,     

The number of homes for sale in Big Bear rose significantly in May, the second straight month we’ve seen the increase.  Combine that with the 55 homes sold in May, the lowest number we’ve seen since January 2009, and it is not the type of combination you want if you are looking for an improving real estate market in Big Bear.  One of the bright spots for sellers has been the limited inventory, or competition.  But, that is slowly going dim.

Big Bear Home Sales

Home sales in May were down 28% when compared to the April sales (55 v. 76). Year over year, sales are down 5 % from May 2009 (55 v. 58). Compared to May 2008, sales were down 19%! Here’s why this is big news – sales have been hovering in the 70+ range, and have been better than 2009 and 2008 numbers.  May 2010 was the first month in a long time where the the year over year monthly sales were down.  Not a super big deal yet, but if we see this continue, it could be signs of other slow down in sales.

23, or 42%, of the 55 home sales in Big Bear were bank owned, the same percentage as last month. 40-50% per month is about the average we’ve been seeing for a while now.

6 of the sales, or 11%, were short sales, which is 3% less than last month. For the amount of short sales on the market, about 6% of the total market, this is in line.  The fact still remains, with all the news and hype you hear about short sales, they make up a small percentage of what sells every month.  80-90% of what is selling in Big Bear is either REO (bank owned) or traditional (organic) sellers.

29, or 47%, of the Big Bear home sales in May 2010 were organic, or traditional sellers – an increase of 3% from last month.  Organic sellers continue to make up over 85% of the available inventory, yet only about half of what is selling every month.  Buyers are more attracted to the bank owned and short sale properties as they believe that is where the deals can be found.  Most of the time they are right.  If you are a traditional seller, you’ve got to compete with the REOs and short sales or else you won’t sell.

Big Bear Home Prices

The median sales price was up from $181,250 in April to $207,500 in May, a 14% increase. Year over year, the median sales price was down 8% from the May 2009 median. Still a lot of volatility out there in the market when it comes to prices – all over the board.

The average sales price for homes sold in May 2010 was $251,401, up 10% from the April number of $229,149.  Year over year, however,  the average sales price is down 19% from the May 2009 average price of $309,806.

Homes Currently on the Market

As mentioned in the opening, this is probably the biggest story of the month.  For the second straight month, the number of homes for sale in Big Bear rose pretty significantly month over month.  A 16% increase (789 vs. 681) is double what we saw last month. Part of what has been keeping this market going, and prices somewhat level, has been the low inventory. Higher inventory means more competition and lowering of prices so keep tabs on this number.  One thing’s for sure, inventory is increasing in Big Bear. This should open up some more options for buyers, and put a little softening in the prices.

It is important to note, however, that the year over year number of homes for sale in Big Bear is still down 19% from May 2009 (789 vs. 902). Take a look at the graph below – last year at this time we saw a leveling effect, very little gain.  Compare that to this year and the big jump.  Anybody else interested by that?

Buyers – the fact still remains that if the one special deal comes up, you gotta move quickly.  Though the inventory is increasing, the deals are still going quickly.

Time will tell what is going to happen this summer.  Will we get over 1000 homes for sale in Big Bear?   Let me know your thoughts.

Big Bear Home Sales – Thru May 2010

Month and Year # Homes For Sale Median Asking Price # Homes Sold Median Sales Price Average Sales Price
May 2010 789 $299,000 55 $207,500 $251,401
April 2010 681 $289,900 76 $181,250 $229,149
Mar 2010 633 $279,900 74 $219,500 $256,236
Feb 2010 617 $285,000 62 $180,000 $254,124
Jan 2010 624 $298,750 57 $162,500 $216,260
Dec 2009 661 $289,900 80 $227,500 $312,925
Nov 2009 709 $299,900 91 $219,900 $257,895
Oct 2009 765 $299,900 94 $206,500 $294,916
Sept 2009 807 $310,000 95 $184,900 $239,625
Aug 2009 864 $313,000 79 $178,000 $250,120
July 2009 909 $309,000 87 $225,000 $280,787
June 2009 927 $310,000 79 $252,000 $293,661
May 2009 902 $316,000 58 $226,000 $309,806
April 2009 894 $300,000 63 $205,000 $243,669
Mar 2009 893 $299,950 58 $177,000 $287,996
Feb 2009 889 $309,000 58 $215,500 $293,295
Jan 2009 902 $319,000 51 $220,000 $272,571
Dec 2008 956 $320,905 44 $242,250 $348,906
Nov 2008 1032 $325,000 50 $240,287 $329,953
Oct 2008 1078 $329,000 77 $255,000 $343,234
Sept 2008 1109 $328,500 82 $224,500 $266,170
Aug 2008 60 $282,500 $328,393
July 2008 63 $205,000 $277,250
June 2008 62 $247,500 $319,579
May 2008 68 $288,450 $356,370

Year-to-Date comparisons – Sales are up 13% from 2009, and 40% from 2008. The median and average prices are each down 11% and 14% respectively from 2009, while compared to 2008 – down 36% and 34% respectively.

Prices still look to be in the 2003/2004 range.  Interesting to see how many homes we were selling back in 2003-2006 and compare the prices.  We were selling over twice as many homes in 2004, the market was a lot more active, yet prices were about the same as they are now.  Compare that to 2007 and 2008, where sales were the same or less than they are now, but price were much higher.  I guess it really does not matter how many homes are selling, sellers just want someone to “show them the money!”

Year to Date Comparison (1/1 – 5/31)

Year # of Homes Sold Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Days on Market List Price to Sales Price
2010 324 $185,000 $241,624 129 96%
2009 288 $208,750 $281,027 132 94%
2008 231 $286,900 $366,669 136 94%
2007 351 $315,000 $410,399 126 96%
2006 471 $320,000 $401,540 76 97%
2005 636 $265,500 $331,560 83 98%
2004 701 $215,000 $260,600 90 97%
2003 600 $174,450 $216,206 54 98%

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* Note: The charts above are updated on a monthly basis. They represent single family home sales in the Big Bear area, including Big Bear Lake, Big Bear City, Moonridge, Fox Farm, Sugarloaf, Erwin Lake, & Fawnskin. Data courtesy of the Big Bear MLS. These numbers do not include raw land or condos nor does it include homes in the Big Bear MLS that are located out of the Big Bear area or home sales not listed in the Big Bear MLS.

Related Articles

Big Bear Home Sales – April 2010

Big Bear Home Sales – March 2010 & First Quarter 2010

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