In order to know where we are going as a real estate market, it is important to see where we have been in the past.
Without running the numbers and creating the foreclosure charts below, it would be impossible to really forecast what is coming down the pike in Big Bear. That said, the number of notices of default, notices of sale, and properties that went back to the bank in February 2009 were the highest we have seen since the tracking started in October of 2006.
What does this mean?
We are going to see many bank owned & short sale properties coming on the market for months to come.
When reading the charts below, here are some things to keep in mind -
92315 = Big Bear Lake, which is made of Big Bear Lake West (the Boulder Bay area), Big Bear Lake Central (the area around the Village), Big Bear Lake East (Eagle Point area, Summit Estates), most of the Fox Farm area (including Castle Glen, Eagle Mountain, Alpine Woods, and others), & most of the Moonridge area.
92314 = Big Bear City, which includes Erwin Lake, Lake Williams, Baldwin Lake, Whispering Forest, and small parts on Moonridge & Fox Farm.
92386 = Sugarloaf.
92333 = Fawnskin area of the North Shore.
Notice of Default (NOD) = the borrower is behind on their payment, typically 60 days or more but does not have to be that long. The Notice is a public documented that the lender records against the property. This starts the foreclosure process. After 90 days of the NOD being recorded, the lender can file a notice of sale.
Notice of Sale (NOS) = If the homeowner does not make up the payments to the lender after the NOD was filed, this public notice is filed against the property. It puts a sale date on the property, called a Trustee Sale. Sometimes these sale dates are delayed but once the property does go to sale, either a new 3rd party will take ownership or it will go back to the bank. If it goes back the bank, there is a good chance that it will be on the market within 7-120 days.
Properties going back to Bank = bank owned, REO, see above.
Notices Of Default
For those that like graphs -
For those that like charts -
| Month/Yr. | 92315 | 92314 | 92386 | 92333 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb. 09 | 30 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 95 |
| Jan. 09 | 19 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 58 |
| Dec. 08 | 18 | 38 | 15 | 2 | 73 |
| Nov. 08 | 21 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 38 |
| Oct. 08 | 11 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 38 |
| Sept. 08 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 24 |
| Aug. 08 | 24 | 29 | 14 | 0 | 67 |
| Jul. 08 | 25 | 33 | 10 | 0 | 68 |
| Jun. 08 | 27 | 35 | 14 | 0 | 76 |
| May 08 | 20 | 31 | 11 | 1 | 63 |
| Apr. 08 | 20 | 30 | 16 | 2 | 68 |
| Mar. 08 | 21 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 55 |
| Feb. 08 | 17 | 23 | 10 | 1 | 51 |
| Jan. 08 | 17 | 28 | 9 | 3 | 57 |
| Dec. 07 | 16 | 28 | 8 | 3 | 55 |
| Nov. 07 | 14 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 29 |
| Oct. 07 | 8 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 39 |
| Sept. 07 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 23 |
| Aug. 07 | 16 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 52 |
| Jul. 07 | 15 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 42 |
| Jun. 07 | 9 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 41 |
| May 07 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 27 |
| Apr. 07 | 12 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 33 |
| Mar. 07 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 22 |
| Feb. 07 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
| Jan. 07 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| Dec. 06 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 28 |
| Nov. 06 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 22 |
| Oct. 06 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
Notices Of Sale
For those that like graphs -
And those that like charts -
| Month/Yr. | 92315 | 92314 | 92386 | 92333 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb. 09 | 20 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 68 |
| Jan. 09 | 20 | 17 | 10 | 2 | 49 |
| Dec. 08 | 15 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 41 |
| Nov. 08 | 22 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 50 |
| Oct. 08 | 18 | 24 | 11 | 0 | 53 |
| Sept. 08 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 25 |
| Aug. 08 | 23 | 30 | 11 | 0 | 64 |
| Jul. 08 | 11 | 27 | 16 | 3 | 57 |
| Jun. 08 | 16 | 18 | 9 | 0 | 43 |
| May 08 | 11 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 44 |
| Apr. 08 | 16 | 23 | 10 | 1 | 50 |
| Mar. 08 | 8 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 34 |
| Feb. 08 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 22 |
| Jan. 08 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| Dec. 07 | 8 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 28 |
| Nov. 07 | 9 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 32 |
| Oct. 07 | 9 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 31 |
| Sept. 07 | 6 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 24 |
| Aug. 07 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| Jul. 07 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| Jun. 07 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| May 07 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| Apr. 07 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| Mar. 07 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
| Feb. 07 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 16 |
| Jan. 07 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| Dec. 06 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Nov. 06 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| Oct. 06 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
Properties that went back to the Bank
For those that like graphs -
And those that like charts -
| Month/Yr. | 92315 | 92314 | 92386 | 92333 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb. 09 | 14 | 18 | 11 | 0 | 43 |
| Jan. 09 | 8 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 42 |
| Dec. 08 | 14 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 33 |
| Nov. 08 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 28 |
| Oct. 08 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 25 |
| Sept. 08 | 10 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 32 |
| Aug. 08 | 8 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 42 |
| Jul. 08 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 34 |
| Jun. 08 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 34 |
| May 08 | 9 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 33 |
| Apr. 08 | 7 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 30 |
| Mar. 08 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 12 |
| Feb. 08 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 21 |
| Jan. 08 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 25 |
| Dec. 07 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 19 |
| Nov. 07 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| Oct. 07 | 9 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 27 |
| Sept. 07 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| Aug. 07 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| Jul. 07 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| Jun. 07 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| May 07 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| Apr. 07 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| Mar. 07 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Feb. 07 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| Jan. 07 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Dec. 06 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| Nov. 06 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct. 06 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
March 16th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
Thanks Keahi.
In order to really advise our clients, these kind of numbers are important to know. I would have been guessing beforehand. These are some hard numbers to use.
March 16th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
Very interesting stats. Thanks for compiling them.
Aloha,
Keahi