Comments on: Big Bear Home Sales – August 2009 http://www.thetimwoodgroup.com/2009/09/06/big-bear-home-sales-august-2009/ The first name in Big Bear Real Esate Wed, 24 Feb 2010 04:05:05 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Tyler Wood http://www.thetimwoodgroup.com/2009/09/06/big-bear-home-sales-august-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-161 Tyler Wood Mon, 07 Sep 2009 15:26:46 +0000 http://thetimwoodgroup.com/?p=3168#comment-161 Thank you for the comment and questions Mr. Russell. Here are some of my thoughts on those - The 101 Notice of Sale (NOS) does not necessarily translate into 101 new bank owned properties the following month. Nearly 50% or more of the time, these NOS are postponed to a future date, and may show up as new NOS in the following months. This does not diminish the fact that the vast majority of these properties will end up on the market over the next 1-12 months. <strong>What is the % that will be cured?</strong> I cannot say that I know for sure, but I've also seen the 6% cure rate as well, so I think that is a good number to use. I cannot recall one that I've seen that has been cured. I am sure there are some, but very few. As for the future and the number of foreclosures to hit the market, it seems to me that there will be a lot more. That is just what the numbers tell me. Record number of defaults, notice of sales, and properties going back to the bank - they have to go somewhere, and most will be on the market for sale. As for prices, I think there are two markets out there, over $350,000, and under $350,000. The market under $350,000 is actually doing very well with sales moving pretty briskly. Prices already took a huge hit, and have leveled off. It is not uncommon to see 2-4 offers on many of the aggressively priced homes under $350,000. Currently, bank owned listings only make up 5% of what is for sale, but they are generally the first to sell. So, even if more come up, I think there is demand that will take these properties off of the market quickly. Prices on the lower end, in my opinion, don't have much more room to drop. That's why we are seeing multiple offers. Over $350,000 however, has some room to drop and that is where I believe you will see the biggest price drops over the next year. Time will tell, but your observations are exactly what I've been pointing out as the big wild card in this market. There are news reports about stabilization in the real estate market, but unfortunately, they are not giving much thought into the huge amount of foreclosures out there. It appears to be the calm before a big storm in my opinion. Thank you for the comment and questions Mr. Russell.

Here are some of my thoughts on those -

The 101 Notice of Sale (NOS) does not necessarily translate into 101 new bank owned properties the following month. Nearly 50% or more of the time, these NOS are postponed to a future date, and may show up as new NOS in the following months. This does not diminish the fact that the vast majority of these properties will end up on the market over the next 1-12 months.

What is the % that will be cured? I cannot say that I know for sure, but I’ve also seen the 6% cure rate as well, so I think that is a good number to use. I cannot recall one that I’ve seen that has been cured. I am sure there are some, but very few.

As for the future and the number of foreclosures to hit the market, it seems to me that there will be a lot more. That is just what the numbers tell me. Record number of defaults, notice of sales, and properties going back to the bank – they have to go somewhere, and most will be on the market for sale.

As for prices, I think there are two markets out there, over $350,000, and under $350,000. The market under $350,000 is actually doing very well with sales moving pretty briskly. Prices already took a huge hit, and have leveled off. It is not uncommon to see 2-4 offers on many of the aggressively priced homes under $350,000. Currently, bank owned listings only make up 5% of what is for sale, but they are generally the first to sell. So, even if more come up, I think there is demand that will take these properties off of the market quickly. Prices on the lower end, in my opinion, don’t have much more room to drop. That’s why we are seeing multiple offers.

Over $350,000 however, has some room to drop and that is where I believe you will see the biggest price drops over the next year.

Time will tell, but your observations are exactly what I’ve been pointing out as the big wild card in this market. There are news reports about stabilization in the real estate market, but unfortunately, they are not giving much thought into the huge amount of foreclosures out there. It appears to be the calm before a big storm in my opinion.

]]> By: William Russell http://www.thetimwoodgroup.com/2009/09/06/big-bear-home-sales-august-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-160 William Russell Mon, 07 Sep 2009 01:43:48 +0000 http://thetimwoodgroup.com/?p=3168#comment-160 Thank you for compiling and sharing these statistics. Looking at these number and the 101 notices of sale mentioned in your foreclosure article for July seems to indicate that there are more foreclosures in the pipeline than sales. (101 July Notices of Sale versus only 75 sales in August.) Other commentators are projecting that only 6% of homeowners with notices of sale will actually cure and avoid foreclosure in some fashion (pay deficiency, loan mod, etc.) What percentage of the Big Bear Notices of Sale will be cured? If it is only 6%, then doesn't that mean that foreclosures will simply overwhelm the market over time, and we are in for more falling prices? Again, thank you for the statistics. -----Current Big Bear Homeowner Thank you for compiling and sharing these statistics. Looking at these number and the 101 notices of sale mentioned in your foreclosure article for July seems to indicate that there are more foreclosures in the pipeline than sales. (101 July Notices of Sale versus only 75 sales in August.) Other commentators are projecting that only 6% of homeowners with notices of sale will actually cure and avoid foreclosure in some fashion (pay deficiency, loan mod, etc.) What percentage of the Big Bear Notices of Sale will be cured? If it is only 6%, then doesn’t that mean that foreclosures will simply overwhelm the market over time, and we are in for more falling prices? Again, thank you for the statistics. —–Current Big Bear Homeowner

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