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Big Bear Home Sales – October 2009

Big Bear Home Sales

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For the second month in a row, Big Bear home sales are near their two year high.

Home sales in October were down 3 % when compared to the September sales (94 v. 92), but were up 26% when compared to the same month last year (92 v. 73).

June thru October have been the strongest selling months we’ve seen during this down market.  While it is still a lot slower than the middle part of the decade (we were selling 150-300 homes per month then), and this is typically the busiest time of the year for sales, increased sales is always a positive sign for any market.

It is important to keep in mind, however, if prices were higher, sales would be lower.  Lower property values are fueling these sales.

31, or 34%, of the 92 home sales in Big Bear were bank owned, about 2% less than last month. 10 of the sales, or 11%, were short sales, which is 3% more than last month.

That means 51, or 55%, of the sales in October 2009 were “organic”, or traditional sellers – another strong month for them, though this number has been slowly decreasing.

Bank owned properties currently only make up 7% of what is for sale in Big Bear, yet they continue to make up between 30% to 40% of what is selling every month.

Big Bear Home Prices

The median sales price in October 2009 was on the rise for a second straight month. It rose 10% from the September number ($208,940 vs. $190,358), though it is still down 20% from the October 2008 median ($208,940 vs. $255,000).

While the median sales price is near the $200,000 mark, the median asking price for properties in Big Bear remains near $300,000 – still a big disconnect between these two prices.

I anticipate the median sales price will fluctuate as we head into the slower winter selling season, and with the sporadic numbers we’ve seen so far this year, it is hard to draw conclusions on what prices are going to do in Big Bear. My best guess – the lower end, under $300,000 or so has started to level off and should remain that way given limited inventory, while those properties priced around $500,000 and over still have some room, about 10-20%, to drop.  Not until the large amount of homes in foreclosure get through the system (short sale, loan mod, or bank owned) will we start to see some price increase and equity build up for Big Bear home owners.

Homes Currently on the Market

The number of homes for sale continues to drop at a significant pace.  Compared to last year, there are 29% less homes on the market for sale now.  I hear all the time from people that it seems like everything is for sale in Big Bear.  That is just not the case.

The limited selection of homes for sale is another factor that will help stop homes prices from dropping too much more.

As we head into the slower selling season in Big Bear it will be interesting to see if inventory on the market increases, which did not happen last year when sales dropped off.  The lower the inventory number stays, the better off our real estate market will be.

Big Bear Home Sales – Thru October 2009

Month and Year # Homes For Sale Median Asking Price # Homes Sold Median Sales Price
Oct 2009 765 $299,900 92 $208,940
Sept 2009 807 $310,000 94 $190,358
Aug 2009 864 $313,000 75 $170,400
July 2009 909 $309,000 87 $225,000
June 2009 927 $310,000 78 $265,000
May 2009 902 $316,000 56 $235,000
April 2009 894 $300,000 61 $205,000
Mar 2009 893 $299,950 54 $179,500
Feb 2009 889 $309,000 57 $217,000
Jan 2009 902 $319,000 47 $220,000
Dec 2008 956 $320,905 41 $262,000
Nov 2008 1032 $325,000 50 $240,287
Oct 2008 1078 $329,000 73 $255,000
Sept 2008 1109 $328,500 82 $224,500
Aug 2008 60 $282,500
July 2008 62 $205,000
June 2008 62 $247,500
May 2008 67 $290,000
April 2008 50 $299,500
Mar 2008 1082 $339,950 49 $288,000
Feb 2008 1049 $345,000 34 $249,950
Jan 2008 1094 $339,900 30 $283,250
Dec 2007 55 $273,750
Nov 2007 66 $282,500
Oct 2007 53 $310,000

Year To Date Comparison (1/1- 10/31)

Year # of Homes Sold Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Days on Market List Price to Sales Price
2009 718 $207,750 $275,570 129 95%
2008 575 $255,000 $330,222 134 94%
2007 668 $315,000 $412,510 123 95%
2006 972 $313,950 $389,247 79 97%
2005 1510 $289,000 $356,259 69 98%
2004 1572 $229,000 $272,915 75 98%
2003 1329 $185,000 $225,023 57 98%

It is beginning to look more and more like 2007 and 2008 are going to be the bottom of the market for home sales in Big Bear.  The bottom for prices however, will most likely be 2009, 2010, and possibly 2011.

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* Note: The charts above will be updated on a monthly basis. They represent single family home sales in the Big Bear area, including Big Bear Lake, Big Bear City, Moonridge, Fox Farm, Sugarloaf, Erwin Lake, & Fawnskin. Data courtesy of the Big Bear MLS. These numbers do not include raw land or condos nor does it include homes in the Big Bear MLS that are located out of the Big Bear area.

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Big Bear Home Sales – September 2009 & Third Quarter 2009

Big Bear Home Sales – August 2009

Big Bear Home Sales July 2009

Big Bear Home Sales – June 2009 And Second Quarter 2009

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