If you are thinking of buying or selling a home in Big Bear, you may want to take a look at the absorption rate of homes that are currently for sale. This is a good way to become more informed on the current real estate market conditions in a particular area.
There is an easy to understand article here describing what the absorption rate is and what it means for the real estate market. In simplistic terms, it is a mathematical equation that tells the amount of time it will take for a specified set amount of properties to be absorbed under current real estate market conditions.
To get the most accurate reading for the Big Bear real estate market, you take the number of properties sold in the past month and divide that into the number of properties currently on the market for sale. Some other ways to figure out absorption rate include looking at from a weekly and yearly basis. I find the monthly time frame to be the most representative. You can also tinker around with this by looking at different price ranges, locations, beds & baths, features and so on. The more you tinker, the more accurate your calculations should be for that type of property. If you wanted to know the absorption rate of 3 bed, 2 bath homes in Moonridge or Fox Farm for example, you could.
That said, there were a total of 80 residential sales in the month of September 2008 in the Big Bear area. Currently, there are 1113 residential properties for sale, which translates into an absorption rate of 13.91 months.
See the breakdown by area & price range below.
Absorption Rate By Price Range
| Price Range | Residential Properties On The Market | Residential Sales Last Month | Absorption Rate – # Of Months It Will Take To Sell |
|---|---|---|---|
| $300,000 & below | 519 | 58 | 8.95 |
| $300,001 to $500,000 | 329 | 17 | 19.35 |
| $500,001 to $800,000 | 136 | 4 | 34 |
| $800,0001 to $1,000,000 | 47 | 0 | N/A |
| $1,000,001 & above | 82 | 1 | 82 |
| Totals | 1113 | 80 | 13.91 |
Absorption Rates By Area
| Area | Residential Properties On The Market | Residential Sales Last Month | Absorption Rate – # Of Months It Will Take To Sell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Big Bear Lake West | 42 | 3 | 14 |
| Big Bear Lake Central | 123 | 5 | 24.6 |
| Big Bear Lake East | 85 | 6 | 14.17 |
| Fox Farm | 86 | 5 | 17.20 |
| Moonridge | 203 | 16 | 12.69 |
| Whispering Forest | 24 | 2 | 12 |
| Fawnskin | 39 | 2 | 19.50 |
| Big Bear City | 228 | 18 | 12.67 |
| Sugarloaf | 134 | 17 | 7.88 |
| Erwin Lake | 101 | 4 | 25.25 |
| Baldwin Lake | 43 | 2 | 21.50 |
| Lake Williams | 5 | 0 | N/A |
| Totals | 1113 | 80 | 13.91 |
From these two charts, we can see that properties priced under $300,000 are selling the best while those $500,000 and up are not faring so well. In fact, there were only 5 sales of residential properties sold in the whole month of Sept. in that price range. When you have 265 homes for sale in Big Bear that are priced over $500,000, that means the absorption rate is 53 months…ouch! I hope these sellers have some time.
From a location perspective, the properties in Sugarloaf, Moonridge, Big Bear City, and Whispering Forest sold better as compared to Big Bear Lake Central, Lake Williams, & Baldwin Lake.
These numbers do change on a monthly basis. Click here if you are interested in seeing the absorption rates for Big Bear from some of the previous months.
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