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Big Bear Home Sales – September 2009 & Third Quarter 2009

Big Bear Home Sales

graphs and charts

In typical fashion for today’s volatile real estate market, September home sales in Big Bear hit a 2 year high with 92 homes sold.

Home sales rose 19% when compared to the August numbers (92 v. 77), and were up 12% when compared to September 2008 (92 v. 82).

The peak selling season is July thru October so increased sales are not to be unexpected during this time frame.  But, the last 4 months have also been the strongest stretch we’ve seen in quite a while.

I believe this increase in sales is a direct response from lower priced bank owned properties that are hitting the market.  That, along with organic sellers starting to get realistic on their asking price, has increased sales.  If prices were higher, sales would be lower.

33, or 36%, of the 92 home sales in Big Bear were bank owned. This is a just a touch higher than last month.  7 of the sales, or 8%, were short sales, which is 3 more than last month.

That means 52, or 56%, of the sales in September 2009 were “organic”, or traditional sellers – another strong month for them, though this number has been slowly decreasing.

Bank owned properties currently only make up 6% of what is for sale in Big Bear, yet they continue to make up between 30% to 40% of what is selling every month.

Big Bear Home Prices

The median sales price in September 2009 was on the rise.

It rose a modest 9% from the August number ($190,358 vs. $170,400), though it is still down 15% from the September 2008 median ($190,358 vs. $224,500).

Prices continue to be up and down, depending on the month.  With limited sales, this can be expected.  One thing is for sure though – the lower prices are driving the activity level of buyers. Without the lower prices, the buyers would still be on the fence.

There is nearly $120,000 difference between the median asking price of $310,000 and the median selling price of $190,358.

Homes Currently on the Market

This is the most important number for the Big Bear real estate market right now. The number of listings for sale in Big Bear is down nearly 300 homes, or 27%, from last year.

This is important for several reasons.

One, the lower the amount of inventory means less competition for other sellers on the market.  And two, limited selection for interested buyers.  If this continues, it should help stabilize prices and maybe even a rise for selected properties.   But, my previous posts about the large amount of properties in foreclosure show that there is still way too much uncertainty in this market.

Big Bear Home Sales – Thru Sept 2009

Month and Year # Homes For Sale Median Asking $ # Homes Sold Median Sales $
Sept 2009 807 $310,000 92 $190,358
Aug 2009 864 $313,000 75 $170,400
July 2009 909 $309,000 87 $225,000
June 2009 927 $310,000 78 $265,000
May 2009 902 $316,000 56 $235,000
April 2009 894 $300,000 61 $205,000
Mar 2009 893 $299,950 54 $179,500
Feb 2009 889 $309,000 57 $217,000
Jan 2009 902 $319,000 47 $220,000
Dec 2008 956 $320,905 41 $262,000
Nov 2008 1032 $325,000 50 $240,287
Oct 2008 1078 $329,000 73 $255,000
Sept 2008 1109 $328,500 82 $224,500
Aug 2008 60 $282,500
July 2008 62 $205,000
June 2008 62 $247,500
May 2008 67 $290,000
April 2008 50 $299,500
Mar 2008 1082 $339,950 49 $288,000
Feb 2008 1049 $345,000 34 $249,950
Jan 2008 1094 $339,900 30 $283,250
Dec 2007 55 $273,750
Nov 2007 66 $282,500
Oct 2007 53 $310,000
Sept 2007 60 $269,750

Third Quarter Comparison (7/1 – 9/30)

Year # of Homes Sold Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Days on Market List Price to Sales Price
2009 256 $195,000 $256,394 123 95%
2008 205 $235,000 $287,787 128 94%
2007 206 $299,900 $403,925 126 95%
2006 291 $320,000 $393,253 85 96%
2005 537 $295,000 $365,214 54 98%
2004 540 $240,000 $285,646 66 98%
2003 451 $194,000 $234,457 62 97%

Year To Date Comparison (1/1- 9/30)

Year # of Homes Sold Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Days on Market List Price to Sales Price
2009 623 $207,000 $272,507 128 95%
2008 498 $253,000 $328,210 131 94%
2007 615 $315,000 $415,163 122 96%
2006 877 $319,000 $393,837 78 97%
2005 1337 $280,000 $350,770 68 98%
2004 1393 $227,500 $269,826 77 98%
2003 1172 $177,400 $218,642 56 98%

Big news here as this is the first sign that 2009 may end up better than 2007 sales.  If it does hold up, it looks like 2007 and 2008 will be the low point for home sales.  Prices however, may be low for the next 1-2 years.

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* Note: The charts above will be updated on a monthly basis. It represents single family home sales in the Big Bear area, including Big Bear Lake, Big Bear City, Moonridge, Fox Farm, Sugarloaf, Erwin Lake, & Fawnskin. Data courtesy of the Big Bear MLS. These numbers do not include raw land or condos nor does it include homes in the Big Bear MLS that are located out of the Big Bear area.

Related Articles

Big Bear Home Sales – August 2009

Big Bear Home Sales July 2009

Big Bear Home Sales – June 2009 And Second Quarter 2009

Comments

  1. Linda Hunter says:

    Tyler – great information and data for anyone following the Big Bear Real Estate market. It seems like the asking price and selling price of any particular home has been on average close (i.e. selling price seem to be 90-95%+ of asking price for a particular home). Is the $120K difference between the median asking price and the median selling price a reflection that the large majority of home sales are lower priced homes and not as many higher priced homes are selling?

    • Tyler Wood says:

      Thanks Linda.

      Yes, I think that is exactly the point. Homes over $300,000 make up a very small percentage of what is selling in Big Bear. I think there are also many homes priced too high for the market. If they get the price closer to the median selling price, they would sell. For example, a home priced at $250,000 that really needs to be under $200,000 in order to sell. There are many of these type of properties on the market right now.

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