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Is The Big Bear Real Estate Market Headed Toward The Perfect Storm?

storm

I believe it could be.

The current state of the real estate market in Big Bear reminds me of a scene in the movie, “The Perfect Storm”.

Near the end of the movie, after the fishing boat and its crew battle huge waves and horrible weather, things clear up.  They think they made it through.  But, the storm comes right back even stronger and eventually sinks the ship & crew.

This is similar to the current state of the real estate market in Bear.  We’ve seen rough waters over the past 2-3 years, and things appear to be clearing up – sales are picking up, prices are leveling out, and inventory is going down.

But there are some big clouds on the horizon in the real estate world.

Foreclosure filings are at the highest levels we’ve seen.

What is going to happen to these properties?  I suspect nearly all will be coming on the market over the next 12 months, and that’s many more than we’ve seen so far.  I believe these will continue to put downward pressure on prices, even with the huge drops we’ve already seen.

I do anticipate that this will have a bigger effect on properties priced over $350,000 as they are getting less activity currently.   These properties make up 60% of what is currently for sale, yet only 22% of what is selling.

Conversely, I expect this will have less impact on those properties priced under $350,000, as they have seen a big drop in prices already, and there remains strong demand from buyers today.  They make up 78% of what is selling yet only 40% of what is currently listed for sale.

By no means am I saying that this is the end of the world for real estate in Big Bear, or all sellers are going to drown.  I am not trying to promote doom and gloom.

But, to deny or not be aware of what we are possibly heading into seems foolish to me.

What do you think?

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Comments

  1. True, foreclosures are going to continue for quite a while, but at least a little recovery can be seeing so that is positive, even though we know the sky is gray

  2. You might be in the eye of the storm, once the edge returns, the ride could get rough.
    Aloha,
    Keahi

  3. Where is the Perfect Storm? As of 09/14/09 on our MLS there is only ONE Bank Owned Property on the market for more than $350,000 in Moonridge, Fox Farm and all of Big Bear Lake. What does this say about our Market? That there are hundreds of Bank Owned Properties just waiting to be “dumped” on the market? Or does is say that there is so much demand in our Resort Market that smart money has been and will continue to buy underpriced properties in the better areas? You decide

  4. Roger Lockhart says:

    Another leg of the stool – the out of control spending guarantees a major (3 pts+) increase in interest rate – even a 2% increase is a roughly 20% increase in debt service – an guaranteed 10-15% decrease in buyers qulaifying at a given level –

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